ABS data shows a welcome downturn in population growth

New population data released by the ABS shows a welcome downturn in population growth due to falls in both net overseas migration, and natural increase across most states. Interestingly, the massive growth in Victoria's population is a notable contrast to what is happening in the property market (prices).

Annual population change, to March 2024

Population growth rates by (selected) state to March 2024

Interstate migration is probably the most interesting chart below, with strong outflows from NSW, Tasmania, and the two Territories. Queensland and WA are the biggest "winners" from this migration, but that just maintains short-term pressure on their new dwelling construction markets. Interstate migration in Victoria has turned back to positive after several years of COVID-driven exodus.

Net interstate migration by (selected) state to March 2024

Net overseas migration by (selected) state to March 2024

Natural increase (births-deaths) by (selected) state to March 2024

We all acknowledge that projects have been experiencing various challenges with construction prices and achieving the required returns/sales rates. However, given realistic timeframes to achieve planning approvals, we have been exploring new opportunities off the back of changed population drivers for our clients nationwide.